Sunday, February 19, 2006

So, can we trust this Russian scientist?

Well, this is the first possibly hopeful news I've come across yet about global warming. It's from a Russian website (in English) and the article is entitled, "Russian Expert Predicts Global Cooling from 2012". Here's what it says:

Starting from 2012, the process of global cooling will start on the Earth and by the middle of 21st century the whole planet will be captured by low temperatures, an expert from the Russian Sciences Academy Observatory was quoted by as saying Monday.

The cause of the expected global cooling is a decrease in the flow of the Sun’s radiation, Khabibulo Absudamatov says.

“We have already witnessed a cooling of the kind in Europe, in North America and Greenland in 1645-1705, with canals freezing in Holland, and people abandoning settlements because of nearing glaciers in Greenland. This is what we are expecting again in some decades,” he said.

Analysis of the Sun’s radiation fluctuations that influence the climate on Earth shows that the planet at the moment is on the peak of the global warming process, Absudamatov said. Now, with the decrease in the Sun’s radiation, global temperatures are going to decrease, too.

“In 20th century, the Sun’s activity could be characterized by a general increase in the amount of radiated energy, and global warming was a result of this process. Global warming is by no means an anomaly, but a normal phenomenon. Global warmings, as well as global coolings, have happened before.”

According to Absudamatov, the global cooling will start in 2012 or 2013. By 2035 the Sun’s radiation will reach its minimum, and 15 years later a deep cooling of the Earth’s climate should be expected.

If this is reliable science, why haven't mainstream western scientists picked up on it? All I can say is, I hope Absudamatov is right.

UPDATE: I just came across the website of The Union of Concerned Scientists and I commend to you this page on the science of global warming. Here's a quote from it:

The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is already occurring and that future change is inevitable.

I recommend exploring the site and particularly the FAQ page.

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