Friday, April 01, 2005

Yup, the election was stolen.

Well, I wondered why exit polls were an indication of a corrupt vote count in Ukraine but not here. Now there's a statistical study that indicates that the likelihood of exit polling being wrong is incredibly tiny. The article reporting on this is by Steven Dyer and is entitled, "Exit poll analysis points to 2004 election corruption". Here's part of what it says:

There's a one-in-959,000 chance that exit polls could have been so wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2004 presidential election, according to a statistical analysis released Thursday.

Exit polls in the November election showed Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., winning by 3 percent, but President George W. Bush won the vote count by 2.5 percent.

The explanation for the discrepancy that was offered by the exit polling firm -- that Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polling -- is an "implausible theory," according to the report issued Thursday by US Count Votes, a group that claims it's made up of about two dozen statisticians.

Twelve -- including a Case Western Reserve University mathematics instructor -- signed the report.

Instead, the data support the idea that "corruption of the vote count occurred more freely in districts that were overwhelmingly Bush strongholds.

"The report dismisses chance and inaccurate exit polling as the reasons for their discrepancy with the results.

I really don't know how to comment except to say it is disgusting beyond belief. But not surprising.

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